4 March 2024
The week ahead
- On Tuesday, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) releases balance of payment and net national debt figures.
- On Thursday, Hampiðjan, Kaldalón and Síldarvinnslan publish financial statements. This is also an interest rate decision day at the European Central Bank (ECB).
- On Friday, the Directorate of Labour publishes registered unemployment in February. We will also see unemployment figures from the US.
Image of the week
Economic activity slowed down considerably as 2023 progressed following almost two years of robust growth in the post-pandemic era. This pattern extends to all aspects of the economy - overall growth, private consumption, capital formation, export and import. The year began with a bang only to slow down with each quarter.
Highlights of the previous week
- Economic growth was 4.1% in 2023, according to preliminary figures from Statistics Iceland. This was higher than expected, caused not least by changes to the institution’s updates to data for the first and third quarters. In the fourth quarter, both private consumption and capital formation contracted between years. Export was unchanged between quarters while import contracted by 6%. Economic growth measured 0.6% in the quarter, mainly due to the considerable reduction in import, which fits the contraction in private consumption and capital formation, with lower import leading to an increase in GDP.
- The CPI less housing rose by 1.33% between months, bringing the 12-month change up to 6.6% from 6.7%. Inflation was rather higher in February than expected, due mostly to January sales of garments and footwear ending sooner than usual, tariff increases for waste disposal, sewerage and cold water pressuring the CPI considerably more upward than expected, and the shopping basket price increasing more than anticipated. We still expect inflation to recede in the coming months but to only 5.5% by May instead of 4.9% as in our previous forecast.
- Statistics Iceland also published preliminary catch value figures for 2023, registered overnight stays in January and the travel sector’s share in GDP in 2023.
- Inflation in the Eurozone fell slightly between months in February, from 2.8% to 2.6%.
- Four companies published results last week: Iceland Seafood, Nóva klúbburinn, Sýn and VÍS (investors' presentation). Alvotech accepted an offer to sell shares, Arion Bank hosted investor days, Reginn entered into reconciliation discussions with the Competition Authority regarding the purchase of all share capital in Eik and PLAY registered subscriptions in the amount of ISK 4 billion.
- In the bond market, Iceland Seafood and Kaldalón auctioned bills and Landsbankinn auctioned subordinated bonds.
- Fitch confirmed Iceland’s sovereign rating of A with stable outlook.
Statistics and market data
Disclaimer
This review and/or summary is marketing material intended for information purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an independent financial analysis. The legal provisions that apply to financial advice and financial analysis do not apply to this content, including the ban on transactions prior to publication. The review is based on publicly available information from parties that Landsbankinn deems reliable yet the Bank cannot independently guarantee the accuracy of the information. Landsbankinn is not liable for any loss that may result from use of the information contained herein.Information about the past performance of financial instruments or indices show nominal returns, unless otherwise mentioned. If results are based on foreign currencies, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past returns are not necessarily an indication of future returns. Detailed information about the historic performance of financial instruments and indices is available on Landsbankinn’s website, including on returns for the past 5 years.Securities transactions involve risk and readers are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the Risk Description for Trading in Financial Instruments and Landsbankinn’s Conflict of Interest Policy on Landsbankinn’s website.Landsbankinn is licensed to operate as a commercial bank in accordance with Act No. 161/2002, on Financial Undertakings, and is subject to supervision by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland (www.fme.is).You may also be interested in
15 April 2024
Inflation will recede somewhat in April, from 6.8% to 6.1%, only to remain fairly stable in the coming months and stand at 5.9% in July, according to our newest inflation forecast. Despite the dent interest rate increases have made in demand, the economy is still going fairly strong and there is tension in the labour market. Inflation expectations remain well above target.
8 April 2024
Around 14% more tourists travelled through Keflavík International Airport in February of this year than the same month of 2023. The duration of stays is shorter than before, with registered overnight stays declining by 2.7% between years in February.
18 March 2024
Figures for 2023 indicate that international tourists had fewer overnight stays in Iceland on average as compared to 2022 yet spent more per day than previously.
11 March 2024
The three large export sectors, tourism (ISK 600 bn), aluminium and aluminium products (ISK 320 bn) and seafood products (ISK 350 bn), were behind 70% of total export value in 2023. Other export created value in the amount of ISK 580 bn, more than either seafood products or aluminium and aluminium products.
26 Feb. 2024
There was a continuous surplus on foreign trade in the years 2010 to 2019. This turned to a deficit in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic. Foreign trade has been more or less balanced since.
19 Feb. 2024
The composition of the labour market has changed somewhat since 1991. Managers, specialists, professionally qualified staff and service and retail sector employees have grown in number while office workers, farmers and fishermen have grown fewer.
5 Feb. 2024
Inflation has decreased in recent months and, in addition, fewer components have increased by over 10% in the past 12 months.
29 Jan. 2024
Last year, wages increased by 10% on average between years. Despite much higher wages, their purchasing power, i.e. the goods and services that can be purchased for wages, only grew by 1%.
22 Jan. 2024
Total government expenditure on domestic research and development (R&D) was 2.7% of GDP in 2022. This is slightly higher than the EU average yet lower than in countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Germany.
15 Jan. 2024
Just over 2.2 million tourists departed from Leifsstöð International Airport in 2023, in line with our October forecast. In that same forecast, we anticipate 2.3 million tourists in 2024. The year 2023 is the second largest tourist year from the beginning, only topped by 2018, when 2.3 million travellers visited Iceland. This past year only just exceeded 2017, which was previously the second largest tourist year.