Economic affairs

Hagspá 2023

Eco­nom­ic fore­cast for 2023-2026: Eco­nomy seek­ing a bal­ance

After overheating in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, the Icelandic economy has slowed down and it is clear that we will see c...
15 April 2024
Weekly bulletin 15 April 2024
Inflation will recede somewhat in April, from 6.8% to 6.1%, only to remain fairly stable in the coming months and stand at 5.9% in July, according to our newest inflation forecast. Despite the dent interest rate increases have made in demand, the economy is still going fairly strong and there is tension in the labour market. Inflation expectations remain well above target.
Gönguleið
8 April 2024
Weekly bulletin 8 April 2024
Around 14% more tourists travelled through Keflavík International Airport in February of this year than the same month of 2023. The duration of stays is shorter than before, with registered overnight stays declining by 2.7% between years in February.
Ferðamenn
18 March 2024
Weekly bulletin 18 March 2024
Figures for 2023 indicate that international tourists had fewer overnight stays in Iceland on average as compared to 2022 yet spent more per day than previously.
Ferðafólk
11 March 2024
Weekly bulletin 11 March 2024
The three large export sectors, tourism (ISK 600 bn), aluminium and aluminium products (ISK 320 bn) and seafood products (ISK 350 bn), were behind 70% of total export value in 2023. Other export created value in the amount of ISK 580 bn, more than either seafood products or aluminium and aluminium products.
4 March 2024
Weekly bulletin 4 March 2024
After almost two years of very robust economic growth in the post-pandemic era, the economy slowed down considerably as 2023 progressed.
Vöruhótel
26 Feb. 2024
Weekly bulletin 26 February 2024
There was a continuous surplus on foreign trade in the years 2010 to 2019. This turned to a deficit in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic. Foreign trade has been more or less balanced since.
Bátur
19 Feb. 2024
Weekly bulletin 19 February 2024
The composition of the labour market has changed somewhat since 1991. Managers, specialists, professionally qualified staff and service and retail sector employees have grown in number while office workers, farmers and fishermen have grown fewer.
Mynt 100 kr.
5 Feb. 2024
Weekly bulletin 5 February 2024
Inflation has decreased in recent months and, in addition, fewer components have increased by over 10% in the past 12 months.
Epli
29 Jan. 2024
Weekly bulletin 29 January 2024
Last year, wages increased by 10% on average between years. Despite much higher wages, their purchasing power, i.e. the goods and services that can be purchased for wages, only grew by 1%.
22 Jan. 2024
Weekly bulletin 22 January 2024
Total government expenditure on domestic research and development (R&D) was 2.7% of GDP in 2022. This is slightly higher than the EU average yet lower than in countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Germany.
Flugvöllur, Leifsstöð
15 Jan. 2024
Weekly bulletin 15 January 2024
Just over 2.2 million tourists departed from Leifsstöð International Airport in 2023, in line with our October forecast. In that same forecast, we anticipate 2.3 million tourists in 2024. The year 2023 is the second largest tourist year from the beginning, only topped by 2018, when 2.3 million travellers visited Iceland. This past year only just exceeded 2017, which was previously the second largest tourist year.
Bakarí
8 Jan. 2024
Weekly bulletin 8 January 2024
Tension in the labour market appears to be easing as high interest rates have a slowing effect on the economy. Markedly fewer business managers respond that there is no shortage of employees, in the Central Bank’s and Gallup’s survey among 400 largest domestic enterprises. Unemployment has not risen to any extent and measured 3.4% in November.
Fimmþúsundkrónu seðlar
18 Dec. 2023
Weekly bulletin 18 December 2023
Since the beginning of 2016, individual disposable income has risen by 54%, yet purchasing power has increased by only 12%, having regard for inflation in the same period.
11 Dec. 2023
Weekly bulletin 11 December 2023
The number of first-time buyers on the housing market is up by 40% between the second and third quarter of the year. They went from 26% to 33% of all buyers, which is similar to pandemic figures, when interest rates were at their lowest.
4 Dec. 2023
Weekly bulletin 4 December 2023
Economic growth was only 1.1% in the third quarter; clearly, high interest rates have slowed the economy markedly. Ever since the second quarter of 2021, following the sharp pandemic-related contraction, growth has measured over 4% every single quarter.
Íbúðahús
27 Nov. 2023
Weekly bulletin 27 November 2023
The number of first-time buyers on the housing market grew substantially in the third quarter of the year, to 1,123 or 33% of all buyers. In the second quarter, first-time buyers numbered 789, or 26% of all buyers.
Seðlabanki
20 Nov. 2023
Weekly bulletin 20 November 2023
In the most recent market expectation survey, carried out two weeks ago, a majority of respondents considered the monetary policy stance too tight rather than too loose. This is quite a change - the majority has considered the stance too loose since January 2020.
13 Nov. 2023
Weekly bulletin 13 November 2023
Icelanders’ online spending generally peaks in November. This is largely due to the bargains and sales prevalent in November, such as Singles’ Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Landslag
24 April 2023
Economic forecast for 2023-2025: Slower rhythm succeeds rapid turnaround
A new macroeconomic forecast from Landsbankinn Economic Research expects to see 3.2% economic growth in 2023 and is considerably more optimistic than the department’s forecast from October 2022. One of the main reasons for optimism is the more positive outlook in the travel sector.
Hagspá 2022
19 Oct. 2022
Robust economic growth - purchasing power lags behind
Landsbankinn Economic Research forecasts 6.5% economic growth this year, record growth since 2007, only for considerable cooling to follow. Per the forecast, the policy rate will enter a rate-cutting cycle in the latter part of 2023 while inflation remains about 4% until 2025. Purchasing power looks set to contract by 0.4% this year but to pick up to the tune of 0.5% next year - a much slower increase than in recent year.
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