Weekly bulletin 6 May 2024

A majority of the market now consider the monetary policy stance too tight. This opinion has become much more pervasive than in April, in response to steadily growing restraint alongside receding inflation and unchanged interest rates.

6 May 2024

The week ahead

On Tuesday, Eimskip, Marel and Sýn publish results.
Wednesday is an interest rate decision day at the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) and publication of a new issue of Peningamál. We forecast unchanged rates. Reginn publishes results.
On Thursday, the Bank of England announces its policy rate decision.
On Friday, the Icelandic Tourist Board releases departures from Leifsstöð International Airport and the Directorate of Labour publishes registered unemployment.

Image of the week

The market’s opinion of the monetary stance has changed drastically in the past few months. According to a new market expectation survey carried out by the CBI 22-24 April, 62% of respondents now consider the monetary policy stance to tight. This figure was 42% in January and 27% in November of last year. The Monetary Policy Committee convenes next week and announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. We forecast unchanged policy rates.

Highlights of the previous week

The CBI published results from its market expectations survey carried out 22-24 April.
Statistics Iceland published figures on registered overnight stays in March, showing a 1% increase in overnight stays between years following a year-over-year contraction ever since December. Statistics Iceland also published turnover based on VAT reports in January and February.
We published a new macroeconomic forecast to the year 2026. We also published a policy rate forecast and a new podcast, reviewing the main aspects of our forecast.
The US Federal Reserve kept the policy rate unchanged. Eurostat released inflation figures and euro indicators.
Arion Bank, Eik fasteignafélag, Íslandsbanki, Kvika Bank and Landsbankinn published interim financial statements.
Ölgerðin finalised a sale of bills.

Statistics and market data

Weekly bulletin 6 May 2024 (PDF in Icelandic)

Disclaimer

This review and/or summary is marketing material intended for information purposes and not for business purposes. This marketing material does not contain investment advice or independent investment analysis. The legal provisions that apply to financial advice and financial analysis do not apply to this content, including the ban on transactions prior to publication.

Information about the prices of domestic shares, bonds and/or indices is source from Nasdaq Iceland - the Stock Exchange. Landsbankinn’s website contains further information under each individual equity, bond class or index. Information about the prices of non-domestic financial instruments, indices and/or funds are sourced from parties Landsbankinn considers reliable. Past returns are not an indication of future returns.

Information about the past returns of Landsbréf funds is based on information from Landsbréf. Detailed information about the historic performance of individual funds is available on Landsbankinn’s website, including on returns for the past 5 years. Information about the past performance of funds show nominal returns, unless otherwise stated. If results are based on foreign currencies, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past returns are not necessarily an indication of future returns.

Securities transactions involve risk and readers are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the Risk Description for Trading in Financial Instruments and Landsbankinn’s Conflict of Interest Policy, available on Landsbankinn’s website. Landsbankinn is licensed to operate as a commercial bank in accordance with Act No. 161/2002, on Financial Undertakings, and is subject to supervision by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland (https://www.cb.is/financial-supervision/)

You may also be interested in

1 July 2025

Monthly Newsletter July 2025

Monthly newsletter of current economic affairs in Iceland.

3 June 2025

Monthly Newsletter June 2025

Monthly newsletter of current economic affairs in Iceland.

2 May 2025

Monthly Newsletter May 2025

Monthly newsletter of current economic affairs in Iceland.

9 April 2025

Economic forecast to 2027: Fair outlook yet anything may happen

Landsbankinn Economic Research forecasts 1.4% economic growth this year and 2.1% next year. The economy has cooled down following a robust period of growth in the years after the pandemic and we now anticipate a slow start.

1 April 2025

Economic Research Monthly Newsletter - April 2025