Weekly bulletin 8 January 2024

Tension in the labour market appears to be easing as high interest rates have a slowing effect on the economy. Markedly fewer business managers respond that there is no shortage of employees, in the Central Bank’s and Gallup’s survey among 400 largest domestic enterprises. Unemployment has not risen to any extent and measured 3.4% in November.

8 January 2024

The week ahead

On Thursday, the Directorate of Labour publishes registered unemployment in November. Hagar and Ölgerðin publish interim financial statements for the third quarter of the financial year 2023/24.
Measurements for the January Consumer Price Index take place this week, with Statistics Iceland publishing the CPI on Tuesday, 30 January.

Image of the week

Alongside a slow-down of the economy, tension in the labour market appears to have eased. This is evident in the results of a survey by Gallup and the Central Bank of managers of the country’s 400 largest enterprises. Managers who respond that there is a labour shortage in the domestic labour market were 54% at year-end 2022. This figure had dropped to 33% by the end of 2023.

Highlights of the previous week

Statistics Iceland published preliminary figures for the balance of trade in December. The total balance of trade in 2023 was negative by ISK 380 bn, an ISK 90 bn worse result than the previous year. The difference between years is the result of an ISK 68 bn contraction in the export of goods and ISK 22 bn increase in the import of goods. Despite this deficit, we expect to see a surplus on the balance of trade in goods and service for 2023 due to a significant surplus of the services balance. Information about the 2023 balance of trade in goods and services will be released in early March.
The Central Bank released the minutes from the meetings of the Financial Stability Committee on 20 and 28 November and 4-5 December 2023.
Last week, Iceland Seafood auctioned bills and Arion Bank auctioned covered bonds.

Statistics and market data

Weekly bulletin 8 January 2024 (PDF in Icelandic)

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