Weekly bulletin 8 January 2024
Tension in the labour market appears to be easing as high interest rates have a slowing effect on the economy. Markedly fewer business managers respond that there is no shortage of employees, in the Central Bank’s and Gallup’s survey among 400 largest domestic enterprises. Unemployment has not risen to any extent and measured 3.4% in November.
8 January 2024
The week ahead
- On Thursday, the Directorate of Labour publishes registered unemployment in November. Hagar and Ölgerðin publish interim financial statements for the third quarter of the financial year 2023/24.
- Measurements for the January Consumer Price Index take place this week, with Statistics Iceland publishing the CPI on Tuesday, 30 January.
Image of the week
Alongside a slow-down of the economy, tension in the labour market appears to have eased. This is evident in the results of a survey by Gallup and the Central Bank of managers of the country’s 400 largest enterprises. Managers who respond that there is a labour shortage in the domestic labour market were 54% at year-end 2022. This figure had dropped to 33% by the end of 2023.
Highlights of the previous week
- Statistics Iceland published preliminary figures for the balance of trade in December. The total balance of trade in 2023 was negative by ISK 380 bn, an ISK 90 bn worse result than the previous year. The difference between years is the result of an ISK 68 bn contraction in the export of goods and ISK 22 bn increase in the import of goods. Despite this deficit, we expect to see a surplus on the balance of trade in goods and service for 2023 due to a significant surplus of the services balance. Information about the 2023 balance of trade in goods and services will be released in early March.
- The Central Bank released the minutes from the meetings of the Financial Stability Committee on 20 and 28 November and 4-5 December 2023.
- Last week, Iceland Seafood auctioned bills and Arion Bank auctioned covered bonds.
Statistics and market data
Disclaimer
This review and/or summary is marketing material intended for information purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an independent financial analysis. The legal provisions that apply to financial advice and financial analysis do not apply to this content, including the ban on transactions prior to publication. The review is based on publicly available information from parties that Landsbankinn deems reliable yet the Bank cannot independently guarantee the accuracy of the information. Landsbankinn is not liable for any loss that may result from use of the information contained herein.Information about the past performance of financial instruments or indices show nominal returns, unless otherwise mentioned. If results are based on foreign currencies, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past returns are not necessarily an indication of future returns. Detailed information about the historic performance of financial instruments and indices is available on Landsbankinn’s website, including on returns for the past 5 years.Securities transactions involve risk and readers are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the Risk Description for Trading in Financial Instruments and Landsbankinn’s Conflict of Interest Policy on Landsbankinn’s website.Landsbankinn is licensed to operate as a commercial bank in accordance with Act No. 161/2002, on Financial Undertakings, and is subject to supervision by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland (www.fme.is).You may also be interested in
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