30 May 2022 - Landsbankinn
Last week’s highlights
Statistics Iceland released the monthly wage index for April 2022, which increased by 1.6% MoM.
Brim, PLAY and Síldarvinnslan published Q1 earnings.
Statistics Iceland published the results of its monthly labour force survey and Q1 trade in goods and services numbers.
S&P Global Ratings raises Arion Bank and Landsbankinn's covered bond rating to A.
The week ahead
On Monday, Statistics Iceland will release CPI numbers for May and, on Tuesday, national accounts for Q1.
On Wednesday, the CBI will release balance of payments and external position for Q1.
On Thursday, the Icelandic Tourist Board and Statistics Iceland will publish the Visitor Survey for 2021.
Markets and Economic Overview
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8 July 2024
High interest rates have encouraged savings and detracted from demand in the economy. Household deposits had grown by 20% in May this year from the same month in 2023, according to the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) newly published Hagvísar. Demand deposits have increased most.
1 July 2024
The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.48% in June. As a result, inflation measured 5.8%, down from 6.2%. Turnover based on March-April VAT reports contracted by 4.6% in real terms and the wage index rose by 0.2% in May, according to figures released by Statistics Iceland last week.
24 June 2024
The housing price index was up by 1.4% in May and the rental price index by 3.2%, according to figures published last week. While the Bank of England maintained an unchanged policy rate, the Swiss National Bank lowered its rate by 0.25 percentage points. Of most interest domestically this week is without doubt the CPI, to be published by Statistics Iceland on Thursday.
18 June 2024
Last week, we saw the publication of unemployment figures, tourist numbers and domestic payment card turnover in May. The US Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged. Later today, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) releases the housing price index.
10 June 2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its policy rate last week. Stronger labour market figures from the US than generally expected increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone initiation of rate cuts.
3 June 2024
Domestic product contracted by 4% in the first quarter of the year and inflation measured 6.2% in May, slightly higher than predicted.
13 May 2024
Household deposits have grown considerably alongside rising interest rates. This has resulted in greatly increased interest income for households, in fact in excess of interest expenses.
6 May 2024
A majority of the market now consider the monetary policy stance too tight. This opinion has become much more pervasive than in April, in response to steadily growing restraint alongside receding inflation and unchanged interest rates.
29 April 2024
Economic growth will be limited in coming years according to our newly published macroeconomic forecast up to and including 2026. We forecast 0.9% growth this year, 2.2% next year and 2.6% in 2026. We expect inflation to recede down to 5.5% by the fourth quarter of this year. A rate-cutting cycle will begin in October, so our forecast, and we expect the economy to pick up speed alongside falling interest rates.
29 April 2024
Landsbankinn Economic Research forecasts limited economic growth this year. Inflation remains persistent and rate cuts aren’t expected until this fall.